# Computed source facts — UK immigration / sexual offences Facebook post

## ONS crime bulletin, year ending December 2025
- ONS says police recorded sexual offences rose 5% to 215,180 in YE December 2025.
- Within sexual offences, rape offences rose 5% to 74,174, compared with 70,898 in YE December 2024.
- ONS says around 1.9% of people aged 16+ — around 900,000 people — experienced sexual assault including attempted offences in the YE March 2025 Crime Survey.

## Home Office illegal-entry routes dataset
- YE December 2025 detected arrivals via illegal routes: 46,497; small boat arrivals: 41,472 (89.2%).
- Updated YE March 2026 detected arrivals via illegal routes: 43,806; small boat arrivals: 39,271 (89.6%).
- Home Office text says YE March 2026 small boats accounted for about 90% of detected illegal-route arrivals.

## Home Office asylum-claims dataset
- YE March 2025 asylum claims by sex: male 75,607; female 30,490; unknown sex 33; total 106,130.
- YE March 2025 adult-age-band claims computed from 18–29, 30–49, 50–69 and 70+ bands: male 63,320; female 22,761. The Facebook post’s “almost 65,000” and “approximately 23,500” wording is close but rounded above this extraction.
- YE March 2026 asylum claims by sex: male 67,217; female 26,301; unknown sex 7; total 93,525.

## Grant-rate details from Home Office asylum initial-decision dataset
- Sudan, YE March 2026 main applicants: 5,503 grant/protection/other-leave outcomes out of 6,045 total outcomes counted in this extraction, about 91.0% of all outcome rows including refusals, withdrawals and administrative outcomes.
- Eritrea, YE March 2026 main applicants: 7,522 grant/protection/other-leave outcomes out of 8,819 total outcomes counted in this extraction, about 85.3% of all outcome rows including refusals, withdrawals and administrative outcomes.
- The Facebook post’s 93% Sudan / 87% Eritrea wording appears broadly close, but the exact rate depends on denominator and whether withdrawals/administrative outcomes are excluded.

## Evidence boundary
- These sources verify rape-offence counts, sexual-assault survey estimates, illegal-entry counts and asylum-claim demographics.
- They do not prove asylum seekers caused the rape increase. The Facebook post itself acknowledges that national figures cannot prove that causal link.
- The transparency question — whether arrests/charges/convictions can be reported by offence, nationality, asylum status and route of entry — remains the article focus.